I wonder what they'll do when everyone's dead? They haven't just double counted the demographic changes, they've modelled it inversely to the way they should have! We all know by now about the pull-forward effect. You can only die once and there is a finite number of people that can die in the total population. Inevitably, this means that periods of high (-er than expected) mortality should be followed by less death not even more!
Don't you think that the old 5-year average baseline exaggerated excess deaths because UK has an increasing trend in deaths per year? When I looked at yearly deaths in England and Wales, I got positive excess deaths each year from 2012 to 2019 when I used the average number of deaths in the past 5 years as the baseline: x.com/mongol_fi/status/1762546073535386059. I got positive excess deaths even in 2019 which was clearly below the actual trend.
With ASMR it wouldn't matter that much if you use an average baseline because ASMR is already adjusted for changes to the age structure. But if you calculate excess deaths simply based on the raw number of deaths like ONS used to do, then an average baseline can result in a huge bias.
OWID previously also used the 2015-2019 average as the baseline but they later switched to a 2015-2019 linear trend which is usually more accurate: "Previously we used a different expected deaths baseline: the average number of deaths over the years 2015-2019. We made this change because using the five-year average has an important limitation - it does not account for year-to-year trends in mortality and thus can misestimate excess mortality." [https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid]
The ONS are just doing the job the government have ordered. They do not want transparency, honesty or for the populations to understand how badly this manufactured "pandemic" was handled, governments are desperately trying to keep their charade alive. In reality they have caused terrible damage to many families, the virus did not travel the world at the speed of light it was the poisonous propaganda, lies and the covid injections that infected the populations.
Those who wittingly create a false picture of reality to support continued public consumption of harmful medical interventions must one day pay the price.
I think using an over parameterised model to fit a baseline that is quadratic at best is doomed to failure. They should stick to a 5 year running average, which of itself, will incorporate demographic changes.
If the baseline goes up because of demographic changes, the 5 year running average will also go up. If you are really worried by the lag just slide it along.
If for example you calculate the baseline for 2020 using the 2015-2019 average, then how can you shift the baseline to account for the 3-year lag without using the pandemic period to calculate the baseline?
If you do a linear regression to get the slope of the trend in 2015-2019 and project it to 2020, then you're just doing what I'm suggesting and it's no longer an average baseline.
Shows how 'useful' models are.....data can be modelled up ( 'cases' or hospitalisations as Vallance was fond of showing whilst at his podium), or, down/away as per excess mortality. Ferguson, of course, has produced so many useful 'models', eg, for the culling of millions of cattle ( Foot&Mouth 2001) for projecting up to 200 million people could be killed from bird flu (2005). It was actually 282 people who died from it between 2003-09.
The selected people or government institutions that produce such models, just confirm for everyone else there's an agenda behind them, with us along the negative axis!
The eternal truth is .... come winter there will be respiratory infections. They will carry off the elderly. But they in no way carry off 'an average' amount. How many deaths you get is determined a)by how severe this winter's diseases are and b) how many people are left around from last year, since you cannot die twice. Thus particularly harsh winters should not be modelled as leading to more harshness. Instead the next year usually has many fewer deaths. It doesn't matter whether or not the disease is nastier... it may well be but it still will kill fewer because those it could be expected to kill already died last year. Everybody who does this sort of modelling understands this. Knavery or Extreme Foolishness is involved in this redesign.
I think the new plans of the truth ministry are phenomenal. The novel methodology will keep people happy and unafraid.
I'm so glad the authorities are concerned about our well-being. Are you not? Do you not want your people to feel safe and calm?
We could also just use future deaths to calculate excess mortality`, instead of using past deaths. This way it will look as if things were getting better when they're actually getting worse. Wouldn't that be nice? Just imagine how happy everyone would be.
Well you're one of the rarefied elite in the Substack comment section who knows how to do linear regression, so which baseline do you think is more accurate if you're calculating the excess number of deaths (and not CMR or ASMR): the average number of deaths in the past 5 years, or the trend of the past 5 years derived with linear regression?
Yes the old govt error of including excess deaths in your baseline. How about a comparison for every cohort separately on a per 1000 rate for 2022 compared to a control period like 2015-2019. Of course this control period has the issue of increased rates of chronic disease set into our baselines,
Picking an appropriate baseline to monitor changes isn’t an easy business.
Many northern countries had excess deaths starting in 2015/2016. I think Australia had higher deaths starting in 2017.
Idk. I was so sick in early 2016. Back then corona viruses were barely tested for. I’m still leaning towards there was a lab leak in 2015/2016 and they didn’t say anything. Maybe 2014 Covid was released with the other reported lab leaks. Plus MERS has already circulated the globe. How many variants have we already been exposed to before 2020?
Idk. They weaponized a PCR test to simulate a pandemic. It just seems like something else happened years before that and they won’t tell us. The vax just made things worse.
I wonder what they'll do when everyone's dead? They haven't just double counted the demographic changes, they've modelled it inversely to the way they should have! We all know by now about the pull-forward effect. You can only die once and there is a finite number of people that can die in the total population. Inevitably, this means that periods of high (-er than expected) mortality should be followed by less death not even more!
Don't you think that the old 5-year average baseline exaggerated excess deaths because UK has an increasing trend in deaths per year? When I looked at yearly deaths in England and Wales, I got positive excess deaths each year from 2012 to 2019 when I used the average number of deaths in the past 5 years as the baseline: x.com/mongol_fi/status/1762546073535386059. I got positive excess deaths even in 2019 which was clearly below the actual trend.
With ASMR it wouldn't matter that much if you use an average baseline because ASMR is already adjusted for changes to the age structure. But if you calculate excess deaths simply based on the raw number of deaths like ONS used to do, then an average baseline can result in a huge bias.
OWID previously also used the 2015-2019 average as the baseline but they later switched to a 2015-2019 linear trend which is usually more accurate: "Previously we used a different expected deaths baseline: the average number of deaths over the years 2015-2019. We made this change because using the five-year average has an important limitation - it does not account for year-to-year trends in mortality and thus can misestimate excess mortality." [https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid]
The ONS are just doing the job the government have ordered. They do not want transparency, honesty or for the populations to understand how badly this manufactured "pandemic" was handled, governments are desperately trying to keep their charade alive. In reality they have caused terrible damage to many families, the virus did not travel the world at the speed of light it was the poisonous propaganda, lies and the covid injections that infected the populations.
Those who wittingly create a false picture of reality to support continued public consumption of harmful medical interventions must one day pay the price.
This new counting methods is nothing short of disinformation. Something which UK Government has proven itself to be a world leader in.
I think using an over parameterised model to fit a baseline that is quadratic at best is doomed to failure. They should stick to a 5 year running average, which of itself, will incorporate demographic changes.
The 5-year average doesn't incorporate the trend in demographic changes so it's always lagging 3 years behind. That's why the old ONS method produced positive excess deaths even in 2019 which was year with unusually low mortality: x.com/mongol_fi/status/1762546073535386059, x.com/mongol_fi/status/1762574134607843777, x.com/mongol_fi/status/1762569252328935792, x.com/mongol_fi/status/1761412691460055380.
If the baseline goes up because of demographic changes, the 5 year running average will also go up. If you are really worried by the lag just slide it along.
If for example you calculate the baseline for 2020 using the 2015-2019 average, then how can you shift the baseline to account for the 3-year lag without using the pandemic period to calculate the baseline?
If you do a linear regression to get the slope of the trend in 2015-2019 and project it to 2020, then you're just doing what I'm suggesting and it's no longer an average baseline.
Shows how 'useful' models are.....data can be modelled up ( 'cases' or hospitalisations as Vallance was fond of showing whilst at his podium), or, down/away as per excess mortality. Ferguson, of course, has produced so many useful 'models', eg, for the culling of millions of cattle ( Foot&Mouth 2001) for projecting up to 200 million people could be killed from bird flu (2005). It was actually 282 people who died from it between 2003-09.
The selected people or government institutions that produce such models, just confirm for everyone else there's an agenda behind them, with us along the negative axis!
The eternal truth is .... come winter there will be respiratory infections. They will carry off the elderly. But they in no way carry off 'an average' amount. How many deaths you get is determined a)by how severe this winter's diseases are and b) how many people are left around from last year, since you cannot die twice. Thus particularly harsh winters should not be modelled as leading to more harshness. Instead the next year usually has many fewer deaths. It doesn't matter whether or not the disease is nastier... it may well be but it still will kill fewer because those it could be expected to kill already died last year. Everybody who does this sort of modelling understands this. Knavery or Extreme Foolishness is involved in this redesign.
I think the new plans of the truth ministry are phenomenal. The novel methodology will keep people happy and unafraid.
I'm so glad the authorities are concerned about our well-being. Are you not? Do you not want your people to feel safe and calm?
We could also just use future deaths to calculate excess mortality`, instead of using past deaths. This way it will look as if things were getting better when they're actually getting worse. Wouldn't that be nice? Just imagine how happy everyone would be.
Irony off.
Well you're one of the rarefied elite in the Substack comment section who knows how to do linear regression, so which baseline do you think is more accurate if you're calculating the excess number of deaths (and not CMR or ASMR): the average number of deaths in the past 5 years, or the trend of the past 5 years derived with linear regression?
When I calculated the number of excess deaths for 2019 in England and Wales, I got 4802 excess deaths when I used a 2014-2018 average baseline but -20466 excess deaths when I used a 2014-2018 linear trend: x.com/mongol_fi/status/1762544936832942458 (see also x.com/mongol_fi/status/1761412691460055380, x.com/mongol_fi/status/1762574134607843777, and x.com/mongol_fi/status/1762569252328935792). The average baseline exaggerated excess deaths like the old ONS method, because UK has an increasing trend in deaths per year. But the result of the linear regression method was closer to the new ONS method.
Yes the old govt error of including excess deaths in your baseline. How about a comparison for every cohort separately on a per 1000 rate for 2022 compared to a control period like 2015-2019. Of course this control period has the issue of increased rates of chronic disease set into our baselines,
Picking an appropriate baseline to monitor changes isn’t an easy business.
Many northern countries had excess deaths starting in 2015/2016. I think Australia had higher deaths starting in 2017.
Idk. I was so sick in early 2016. Back then corona viruses were barely tested for. I’m still leaning towards there was a lab leak in 2015/2016 and they didn’t say anything. Maybe 2014 Covid was released with the other reported lab leaks. Plus MERS has already circulated the globe. How many variants have we already been exposed to before 2020?
Idk. They weaponized a PCR test to simulate a pandemic. It just seems like something else happened years before that and they won’t tell us. The vax just made things worse.
😭😭