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Joel Smalley's avatar

Reading between the lines, based on the evidence presented here, I think the conclusion must be that "SARS-CoV-2" was not a "novel", "deadly" virus then? One can accept that it exists and even that it is sufficiently genetically distinct to be uniquely characterised as a virus without admitting that it caused a novel disease (COVID) for which there was no suitable, existing treatment. Because that seems to be the most plausible explanation right now. In that case, one must conclude that all the death was due to something else, some of which has been mentioned here - denial of regular treatment in the presentation of ILI symptoms, misuse of other treatments, disruption to the general fabric of social and medical welfare... The response was responsible for all the excess death, not a novel virus.

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Rudolph Rigger's avatar

I learned today that conundra is an acceptable plural for conundrum - and that's what it seems we have here with trying to piece together what was *actually* going on with respect to The Great Cough of Catastrophe™ known as 'covid'.

On the one hand we have the diagnostic testimony of Pierre Kory who argues that we were indeed dealing with a virus that was novel enough to be able to come to a different diagnosis. Furthermore, he argues that 'standard' treatments one would apply for serious ILI type illnesses did not work as well as expected, which is why he (and others) developed an alternative protocol. His diagnostic sentiments were also echoed by the doctor who treated my brother when he was hospitalized for covid complications. He also didn't know how best to treat his patients.

Another member of my family is an ICU nurse who treated the seriously ill during covid and she gets quite cross when people suggest it was 'non-existent' or just a misdiagnosed 'normal' virus. Do we ignore the testimony of those who were at the sharp end dealing with some very ill people?

On the other hand we have the kind of testimony of today's post above which demonstrates a wholly inadequate protocol was imposed in the UK (I presume) and this *must* have significantly contributed to the death toll - assuming we were dealing with a viral respiratory infection.

But this is the material fact isn't it? We must explain why people were getting ill. Was this unusual for this time of the year? Did we see a higher incidence of illness in age groups we wouldn't normally expect to see it in?

This is probably where I'd look for evidence for the hypothesis there was a novel-enough virus doing the rounds. Did we see an atypical incidence of hospital admissions for respiratory conditions in, say, the 20-40 year age range? Or even 40-60, for example? I don't know where to get that data.

I did a 'back of the envelope' calculation of the excess death as a percentage of the 2015-2019 baseline broken down into age ranges using the ONS data, and it showed that, when expressed as a percentage, there were noticeable 'spikes' during 'covid' waves across all except the very youngest age ranges.

But, but, but . . . (a) it's death by registration date data and (b) it's using the most crude estimate of excess of a simple arithmetic mean. And confidence intervals and error bars? Well, let's just say they were nowhere to be seen! So my back of the envelope methodology is providing only a *hint* at a possible problem.

If you look at the data from OWID (which we now know to be highly questionable and based to some extent on computed models) we also see another curious thing during the first year. There's a geographic pattern to covid death in Europe. Certain countries get hit with a wave in the Spring, but other countries in more central Europe have very little covid death in the Spring and then massive rises in the Winter. Did their treatment protocols change in this period?

If we're going to argue that much of the death was caused by (a) panic brought on by the announcement of a pandemic and (b) hopelessly inadequate treatment protocols (not to mention overuse of midazolam) then what explains the 'delay' in deaths in central European countries?

It's all a big mess - and a large part of the confusion must be placed at the door of the 'data' collection which seemed to me to be wholly unsuitable for the job. Who in their right mind, in the midst of a supposedly deadly 'pandemic', would insist on anything but the absolute most careful and accurate data collection? We spent billions on useless shite like testing and tracking but couldn't invest in decent data collection? The breath-taking stupidity of designating anyone who died within 4 weeks of a positive covid test as a 'covid' death is still something I have not been able to get my head round (from a scientific perspective. As a propaganda tool it makes perfect sense)

Anyway, there's still a lot about the whole covid clownshow that I can't make full sense of. At the moment I tend to think that (a) there was a novel-enough virus doing the rounds that (b) a very large portion of the deaths were essentially iatrogenic and that (c) the 'pandemic', such as it was, came nowhere close enough to justify the crazy levels of panic and idiotic interventions we suffered.

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